WS #13631

The dominant narrative remains the US labor market contraction (July payrolls -23K, prior months revised down) and Fed hold expectations, with the September rate-hike probability dropping to 44% from 55%. This is corroborated by multiple sources (marketwatch, RTTNews, dpa-AFX) and is driving a risk-on rally in tech (PLTR +9.8%, NOW +6.2%, QCOM +4.0%, TSLA +2.4%, NVDA +1.9%) and gold (gold +7.7% on the week, silver +11.6%). The Hormuz de-escalation narrative is now ESCALATING with a concrete catalyst: a US official told Reuters that a deal between Iran and Oman is expected 'soon' and the US will lift its blockade of Iranian ports once announced. This is corroborated by seekingalpha, GDELT, and Jerusalem Post, and is a counter-signal to the oil-supply-crisis thesis, pressuring oil prices and supporting equities. However, Houthi attacks in Yemen (45 government troops killed) and Iranian strikes in the Strait of Hormuz continue, keeping oil risk elevated. The Fed independence narrative is also escalating: Trump has renewed his push to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, reported by marketwatch, NPR, and multiple Bluesky posts, which could undermine Fed credibility and support gold. Meta faces a $567M judgment in New Mexico for youth mental health, adding to a $375M penalty, a negative for META but small relative to its market cap. AMD's acquisition of Taalas (AI inference chips) is a competitive move against NVDA, though NVDA remains strong on SpaceX's commitment to its chips. Tesla received a Jefferies price target cut to $350 (from $400) on weak operating profits, but the stock is up on the day, and a $16.8B Terafab groundbreaking is a positive catalyst. The US Senate passed a sweeping Russia sanctions bill (86-11) that allows 100% tariffs on major buyers of Russian oil, which could impact China and India and support oil prices. Solar stocks rallied on Trump's 15% polysilicon tariff, benefiting domestic producers. Overall, the market is in a risk-on mode driven by Fed expectations and Hormuz de-escalation, but geopolitical and Fed independence risks remain.