WS #13638

The dominant narrative remains the risk-on rally driven by the weak July jobs report, which has solidified expectations that the Fed will not hike in September. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Bloomberg, GDELT, various market reports) showing the S&P 500 closing at a record high (+0.62%), Nasdaq +1.3%, and the 10-year yield falling to 4.641%. The jobs report showed a loss of 23,000 jobs versus expectations of +80,000, with downward revisions to prior months, pushing Fed hike odds down to 44% from 58.3%. This macro backdrop is supportive for growth and tech stocks, with NVDA, TSLA, and other semis leading gains. However, there are notable counter-signals and idiosyncratic moves: the Senate passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act (86-11), which could tighten oil supply and support energy prices, but also introduces tariff authority that could weigh on trade-sensitive sectors. Additionally, the US Treasury sanctioned two Iran-linked crypto exchanges, and there are reports of an Iran-Oman deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which could ease oil supply concerns. In company-specific news, Datadog (DDOG) shares tanked 19% despite strong earnings, likely due to guidance or valuation concerns, while Doximity (DOCS) soared over 30% on AI product profitability. SpaceX (SPCX) shares surged 15% on Friday, recovering from lockup-related selloff, and Cathie Wood invested in TSMC and SpaceX while trimming Amazon and Alphabet. The MAG7 narrative is mixed: NVDA and TSLA are up strongly, but GOOGL and AMZN face selling by Cathie Wood, and AAPL is facing price increase rumors for iPhone 18 Pro. Overall, the market is in a risk-on mode, but geopolitical and policy developments could introduce volatility.