WS #13641

The dominant narrative remains the risk-on rally driven by the weak July jobs report (-23k vs +80k expected), which has lowered September Fed hike odds to ~45% and pushed the S&P 500 to a record close of 7,757.64 (+0.62%), Nasdaq +1.3%, Dow +0.3%. This is corroborated by AP, Kiplinger, GDELT, and multiple international outlets. The key new development in this window is the US Senate passing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act (86-11), which targets buyers of Russian oil/gas and expands Iran sanctions—this is a high-significance geopolitical signal with direct energy market implications, though it now heads to the House with uncertain timing. Additionally, there are strong signals of a potential de-escalation in the Iran conflict: US officials report Oman-Iran talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz are advancing, with the US expected to lift its blockade upon a deal. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters via GDELT, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera) and is already pressuring oil prices (Brent ~$83, WTI ~$77, down ~9% on the week). This counters the prevailing bearish oil thesis from the Iran war and should dampen energy-related inflation fears. On the earnings front, Airbnb (ABNB) surged 15.1% after raising revenue outlook, while The Trade Desk (TTD) fell 21.9%—both are notable single-stock moves. Also, Trump Media (DJT) scrapped its Crypto.com CRO treasury deal, causing CRO to fall 5%. The Fed independence issue is escalating: the Trump administration is moving to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, with a deadline of August 26—this is a medium-significance political risk for markets. Overall, the macro theme is STABLE (risk-on continues), but the Iran/Hormuz de-escalation is a new counter-signal that could shift energy and inflation dynamics.