WS #13653

The dominant macro narrative remains the dovish Fed repricing following the shock July jobs report (-23,000 vs +80-95k expected, with May/June revised down 103k combined), which drove the S&P 500 to a record close of 7,757.64 (+0.6%), the Nasdaq +1.3%, and the 10-year yield to 4.64%. Fed hike odds for September fell to ~40-42%, and the probability of no 2026 hikes rose to 24%. This narrative is STABLE/ESCALATING in its dovish direction, with gold surging 2.13% and Bitcoin above $65,000. The weak jobs data is the primary catalyst, and no new data in this window contradicts it. The Strait of Hormuz situation remains unresolved and volatile: Iran and Oman are close to a deal to share transit/protection fees, but the US rejects any tolls or Iranian control, insisting on free passage. The US Senate passed the Lindsey Graham Russia/Iran sanctions bill (86-11), authorizing up to 100% tariffs on major buyers of Russian energy (China, India, Turkey) — a potential oil supply shock. Separately, Trump imposed a 15% tariff and price floors on polysilicon (Section 232), targeting China's 96% dominance — bullish for US solar/semiconductor supply chain names but bearish for importers. The Fed independence saga continues: Trump is again trying to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, with a deadline of August 26, adding to policy uncertainty. In corporate news, several MAG7 and tech names show idiosyncratic signals: AMD acquired AI inference startup Taalas (bullish for AMD's AI positioning), while Amazon's Leo satellite internet service is launching mid-2026 with 90 satellites deployed in 26 days (bullish for AMZN, competitive pressure on SpaceX/Starlink). Meta was ordered to pay $942 million in a New Mexico court ruling over minor safety (bearish for META, but likely manageable). Citi cut its price target on Micron to $1,150 from $1,400 (bearish for MU). Oklo jumped 15% after its reactor hit criticality (bullish for OKLO and nuclear sector).