WS #13655

The dominant theme is the US-Iran Strait of Hormuz situation, which is showing signs of de-escalation as multiple sources report progress toward a deal. The US has signaled it will lift its blockade of Iranian ports once an agreement is reached, and Iran's negotiators are awaiting final approval from its Supreme National Security Council. This is corroborated by Trump's public optimism about lower fuel prices and the fact that Brent crude settled up only 1.3% at $83.55, with a weekly loss of over 8%, indicating the market is pricing in a resolution. However, the deal is not yet finalized, and there are concerns about the terms, including potential fees and control of the strait, which could keep oil prices volatile. The US Senate passed a sweeping Russia sanctions bill (86-11) that could impose 100% tariffs on major importers of Russian oil and gas, including India and China, which could have second-order effects on global trade and energy flows. Additionally, Ukraine has agreed not to target certain Kazakh oil tankers in the Black Sea, a diplomatic agreement that could ease some supply concerns. On the macro front, the soft US jobs report (nonfarm payrolls -23,000 vs +83,000 expected) has reinforced the dovish Fed narrative, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high and the Nasdaq up 1.3%. However, there is a growing hawkish faction within the Fed, with three dissents at the last meeting and renewed efforts by Trump to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which could introduce political risk to the central bank's independence. In corporate news, Apple is facing supply constraints and rising memory costs, leading to a downgrade by Phillip Securities, while Amazon is financing a massive gas-fired power plant in Texas for data centers, highlighting the AI-driven energy demand. Robinhood formed a golden cross, and several earnings beats (Appian, Targa Resources, Concentra) are notable but not market-moving on a macro scale.