WS #13658

The dominant market narrative is shifting toward de-escalation in the Iran conflict, with multiple sources (Reuters, ANI, Rainews, Libero) reporting that the US expects a deal between Iran and Oman on the Strait of Hormuz 'soon,' which would lead to the US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports. This is a high-significance counter-signal to the previous escalation narrative, and it is corroborated by reports that top US General Dan Caine is privately seeking an 'off-ramp' from the war, warning that airstrikes alone won't achieve Trump's goals. This dovish geopolitical development is likely to pressure oil prices (Brent already fell ~5% on similar news earlier) and benefit airlines, while hurting defense stocks. However, the situation remains fluid: ADNOC reported 15 vessel attacks, and Iran is demanding restrictions on US warship passage, so the deal is not yet finalized. Separately, the US Senate passed the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act (86-11), which could impose up to 100% tariffs on major importers of Russian energy (India, China, etc.), but it faces House hurdles and won't be considered until September, so its market impact is deferred. On the macro front, the weak July jobs report (23,000 jobs lost) has solidified the dovish Fed narrative, driving gold to $4,399/oz (+7.35% weekly) and US stocks to record highs (S&P 500 at 7,757.64), with the 10-year yield falling to 4.64%. This supports gold miners and rate-sensitive sectors. The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains escalated with fresh drone/missile attacks on Kyiv and a drone attack on the Syzran oil refinery, but Ukraine has reportedly agreed not to target CPC infrastructure (Chevron, ExxonMobil shareholders), which is a counter-signal to oil supply disruption fears. Overall, the dominant theme is DE-ESCALATING on the Iran front, while the Fed narrative is dovish, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict is STABLE-to-ESCALATING but with a new oil infrastructure carve-out.