WS #13663

The dominant theme is the US-Iran conflict and its energy market implications, which is ESCALATING. Key developments include: (1) ADNOC confirmed a missile attack on one of its vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with no injuries, and the UAE condemned the attack—this raises geopolitical risk premium on oil and shipping; (2) Ukraine has agreed not to strike non-Russian tankers and Black Sea infrastructure vital for Kazakh oil exports, including the CPC terminal, which is a counter-signal that could ease oil supply concerns; (3) Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries (Ilsky and Syzran) continue, with fires reported, supporting oil prices; (4) The US Senate passed the Lindsey Graham sanctions bill (86-11), which authorizes up to 100% tariffs on countries importing Russian oil, including India and China, and 500% tariffs on Russian oil/gas—this is a major geopolitical development with broad market implications; (5) US General Dan Caine is urging an off-ramp from the Iran conflict, indicating internal pressure to de-escalate. Additionally, Apple's integration of Alibaba's Qwen AI model into Apple Intelligence is a notable tech development, and Amazon's financing of a massive 7.65 GW gas plant for data centers highlights AI infrastructure demand. Bitcoin remains under pressure from a wave of critical exploits, including a $100 million Coldcard attack and a BTCPay Server vulnerability, which could weigh on crypto sentiment.