WS #13670

The dominant theme remains the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which is ESCALATING. Iran struck an ADNOC-affiliated tanker in the Strait of Hormuz (confirmed by UAE Foreign Ministry, ADNOC, and multiple outlets including Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera, and Gulf News), marking the latest in a series of attacks on shipping. Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said a deal with Oman on a new shipping route is 'very close' but that reopening the strait depends on US concessions and compensation, while the IRGC explicitly stated reopening is conditional on US acceptance of Iran's terms and is not tied to Iran-Oman talks. This dual-track messaging—diplomatic progress on a route but hard conditions on reopening—keeps oil supply risk elevated. Brent crude is trading around $83.55, up 1.29%, and gold rose $22 to $4,341/oz, reflecting continued risk premium. The US Senate passed the Graham Russia-Iran Sanctions Act (86-11), allowing 100% tariffs on top importers of Russian oil and extending Iran sanctions to 2031, adding a trade-war layer. Separately, US employers unexpectedly cut 23,000 jobs in July, which has shifted Fed expectations toward a hold in September (55% probability per CME FedWatch) and supported the AI/tech rebound narrative. In tech, Apple confirmed Apple Intelligence can work with Alibaba's Qwen models in China (Mac-only integration), a fresh data point on the Apple-Alibaba AI partnership that supports both AAPL and BABA. SpaceX (SPCX) surged 15.8% on blowout Q2 revenue of $7.81B (+92% YoY) and a $16.8B Terafab AI chip complex with Tesla, lifting the space/AI complex. Uber reported Q2 revenue of $14.19B, up 12% YoY but slightly below estimates of $14.24B, a minor miss. Celestica (CLS) dropped 13.2% on insider selling by CEO and CFO, a notable negative signal for the AI hardware supply chain. The overall market narrative is a tech/AI rebound with record highs, supported by weak jobs data and the removal of the Situational Awareness hedge fund overhang, but the Hormuz escalation and oil price strength pose a counter-risk.