WS #13678

The dominant market narrative remains the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which is now ESCALATING after a missile attack on an ADNOC tanker. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine have all condemned the attack, while Iran's IRGC states reopening Hormuz is conditional on US accepting its demands, separate from Iran-Oman talks. This contradicts the prior de-escalation narrative and raises oil supply risk, though Iran FM Araghchi says talks with Oman are 'very close' and traffic has returned to 60% of normal. Separately, Berkshire Hathaway reported strong Q2 earnings (operating profit +16% to $12.98B, net income $25.67B), bought ~$20B more stocks than sold, including a $10B stake in Alphabet, and accelerated buybacks ($4.5B in Q2, $3.3B in July). This is a major signal for GOOGL and BRK.B. Also, Ukraine has agreed to halt strikes on non-Russian tankers and CPC infrastructure after US pressure, which is a counter-signal to oil supply fears. Other notable items: Apple integrates Alibaba's Qwen AI on Macs in China (bullish for AAPL/BABA), Nvidia testing lower HBM capacity for Rubin Ultra (bearish for NVDA), and JPMorgan sees gold at $5,000/oz by Q4 (bullish for gold miners).