WS #13680

The dominant Strait of Hormuz narrative is ESCALATING, with a new development: Iran attacked an ADNOC tanker in the Strait, drawing condemnation from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Jordan, and the GCC. Iran's IRGC and FM Araghchi clarified that reopening the Strait is conditional on US concessions, not just the Iran-Oman deal, which is 'very close' but not sufficient. This contradicts earlier US optimism about a quick reopening, keeping oil supply risk elevated. Counter-signals: Ukraine agreed to halt strikes on non-Russian tankers and CPC infrastructure in the Black Sea (US-brokered), which could restore some Kazakh oil flows and ease supply concerns. Also, the US Senate passed a sweeping Russia sanctions bill (86-11) that could impose 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers like India and China, potentially tightening global oil supply further. In corporate news, Berkshire Hathaway reported strong Q2 earnings (operating profit +16% to $12.98B, net income $25.67B), accelerated buybacks ($4.5B in Q2, $3.3B in July), and bought ~$10B of GOOGL stock, making Alphabet its top holding. This is a high-significance MAG7 signal: Berkshire's endorsement of GOOGL is a bullish catalyst. Also, Apple confirmed integration of Alibaba's Qwen AI model into Apple Intelligence for China Macs, a positive for AAPL in the China market. Bitcoin ETFs saw $1B inflows, best week since April, supporting crypto sentiment. Gold is near $4,262/oz, up 5% on the week, with JPMorgan forecasting $5,000/oz by Q4. The Iran-Oman deal progress and Ukraine's Black Sea agreement are counter-signals to the oil supply crisis, potentially dampening bearish energy sentiment.