WS #13683

The dominant theme remains the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which is ESCALATING. Iran has issued a sweeping list of demands (lift blockade, sanctions, withdraw troops, pay reparations) for reopening the strait, and the IRGC explicitly stated reopening is unrelated to Iran-Oman talks. This directly counters the prior narrative of a near-term deal. Simultaneously, Iran attacked an ADNOC tanker (16th attack), drawing condemnation from UAE, Qatar, Jordan, and Bahrain. US Vice President Vance said the US is working on a safe shipping route but 'doesn't trust' Iran, while a US official expects a deal soon. The contradictory signals create high uncertainty, but the hardline Iranian demands and continued attacks suggest escalation, likely keeping oil prices elevated and pressuring risk assets. Separately, Berkshire Hathaway reported strong Q2 earnings (EPS beat), with $4.5B buybacks and $20B net equity purchases, signaling confidence. The US Senate passed a Russia sanctions bill (86-11) authorizing up to 100% tariffs on top Russian oil buyers including India and China, which could impact global trade. Also, Apple's request for memory discounts was denied by CXMT, with DRAM prices up 90% QoQ, highlighting a memory shortage that could pressure Apple margins and benefit memory makers.