WS #13686

The Strait of Hormuz crisis remains the dominant market theme, but the narrative is now mixed with both escalation and de-escalation signals. Iran's Supreme National Security Council reiterated six sweeping demands for reopening the strait, including lifting the blockade, sanctions relief, compensation, and freeing frozen assets, while a fresh Iranian missile strike hit an ADNOC tanker—the 15th+ attack on Adnoc vessels—and a vessel was struck off Oman. This contradicts earlier optimism about a US-Iran deal and keeps oil volatile. However, counter-signals emerged: VP Vance said Iran has assured the US it won't impose tolls and expects oil flows to return to pre-conflict levels, and Iran-Oman talks are reportedly 'close' to a deal on a new corridor. These mixed signals keep oil prices elevated but range-bound. Separately, the US Senate passed a sweeping Russia sanctions bill (86-11) that could authorize 100% tariffs on top buyers of Russian oil like India and China, adding a new layer of geopolitical risk to global energy trade. In tech, Nvidia's stock surged 11.6% last week, adding $562 billion in market cap, driven by Musk's praise and hyperscaler capex, with earnings due Aug 26; this is a bullish MAG7 signal. Tesla faces a severe demand slump in Germany with only 367 new registrations in July, down 95% MoM, a bearish signal for TSLA. Amazon's Bezos filed to sell $4 billion in stock, a potential overhang on AMZN. The macro backdrop is complicated by a weak US jobs report and elevated inflation, with markets pricing a possible 50bp cut in September, but next week's CPI will be key.