WS #13692

The dominant Strait of Hormuz crisis narrative is ESCALATING despite ongoing diplomatic efforts. Iran has issued a formal list of six demands to the US (including military withdrawal, lifting sanctions, war reparations, and unfreezing assets) that must be met before the strait reopens, directly contradicting earlier optimism about a near-term Iran-Oman deal. This is corroborated by multiple sources (BBC, Washington Examiner, Bloomberg, Pakistan Today, GDELT). Simultaneously, Iran struck a 16th tanker (an ADNOC vessel) in the strait, with traffic down to ~10% of pre-war levels, reinforcing the bearish oil supply picture. However, a counter-signal emerges: UAE oil exports have hit record highs (~3.7M bpd in June) via alternative pipelines, ship-to-ship transfers, and disabled transponders, suggesting some supply resilience that could dampen the oil price spike. Separately, the US Senate passed a sweeping Russia sanctions bill (86-11) that could impose up to 100% tariffs on countries importing Russian energy (India, China, Brazil), adding a new geopolitical risk layer. In tech, Amazon confirmed it is behind the largest planned US gas power plant (7.65 GW) for AI data centers, signaling massive energy demand for AI infrastructure. CoreWeave remains in a bear market ahead of earnings, a potential negative for AI sentiment. No MAG7-specific contradictions to the macro narrative were identified in this window.