WS #13720

The dominant theme remains the Strait of Hormuz closure, which is ESCALATING. Iran's Revolutionary Guards have formally stated the strait will remain closed until the US meets all of Tehran's conditions, including lifting sanctions, ending the naval blockade, withdrawing US forces, paying war reparations, and releasing frozen assets. This is corroborated by multiple sources (GDELT, RSI, Al Bawaba, Jordan Times, and various regional outlets), directly dashing hopes for a near-term reopening and keeping oil prices elevated. Adding to the supply risk, the Houthis have claimed a drone strike on Saudi Aramco's refinery in Jazan (corroborated by Xinhua, Sputnik, Daily Sabah, and NPR), and have also attacked the Red Sea port of al-Makha/Mocha, with six explosions reported. The US Senate's passage of the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, which could impose 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian energy (notably India), further tightens global oil markets. On the macro side, a weak US July jobs report (nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000, with downward revisions of 103,000) has tempered expectations of a September Fed rate hike, supporting rate-cut hopes and pressuring the dollar. In tech, Apple has pulled its Qwen integration support document from its Chinese website, signaling a pivot to Baidu for its China AI services, which is a negative for Apple's China strategy but a positive for Baidu. Berkshire Hathaway's new CEO Greg Abel has invested $10 billion in Alphabet (GOOGL) and bought back $4.5 billion of Berkshire stock, a notable bullish signal for GOOGL. SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company shows a $2 billion loss in H1 2026, but the stock gained 15.8% on Q2 revenue beat and Terafab chip plans, which could support AI/semiconductor sentiment. Overall, the actionable signals are the Hormuz stalemate, the Houthi attacks, the Russia sanctions bill, the weak US jobs data, Apple's China AI pivot, and Berkshire's Alphabet investment.