WS #13722

The dominant theme remains the Strait of Hormuz closure and US-Iran tensions, but this window shows a critical new development: multiple sources (WSJ, Jerusalem Post, Times of Israel, and a Bluesky post) report that President Trump is willing to end the war with Iran without a nuclear deal, contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This is a potential de-escalation signal, though Iran's security chief has simultaneously issued a list of hard demands (compensation, sanctions relief, troop withdrawal) for reopening, and Iran's foreign minister says a deal with Oman on shipping lanes is in 'final stages' but the strait will only reopen if US meets conditions. The narrative is STABLE-to-DE-ESCALATING on the diplomatic front, but ESCALATING on the military front: Houthis claimed a drone attack on Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, and Iran attacked a UAE ADNOC tanker in the Strait, drawing condemnation from Saudi Arabia, GCC, and Arab League. These attacks could reignite oil supply fears. Separately, Apple is testing Chinese CXMT memory chips for iPhones and MacBooks (WSJ), a significant supply-chain shift amid AI-driven memory shortages. Also, US July CPI is expected to show cooling inflation (core 2.5% YoY), which could reduce Fed rate-hike pressure. The market context includes a leveraged ETF boom amplifying intraday momentum, and a Bitcoin rebound to $64.8K on canceled Iran strikes and falling oil.