WS #13730

The dominant theme remains the Iran-US Strait of Hormuz conflict, which is STABLE but with a notable development: Iran and Oman are in the 'final stages' of a shipping-lane deal, but Iran insists the strait will not reopen until the US meets six demands (lifting blockade/sanctions, withdrawing forces, compensation). This is corroborated by Reuters, CNBC, Daily Sabah, and others, and is a counter-signal to any bullish reopening hopes. Separately, Houthis claimed a drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Jizan refinery (400k bpd), confirmed by Saudi authorities as a fire with no injuries; this is corroborated by multiple sources and supports oil price risk premium. On the earnings front, Palantir reported 93% revenue growth to $1.935B (beating by $130M), and Chevron reported record quarterly earnings with energy sector earnings up 147%; these are positive signals for tech and energy. Bitcoin ETFs saw $853M weekly inflows (largest since April), with BlackRock's IBIT taking $693M, a bullish crypto signal. Apple is reportedly testing Chinese CXMT DRAM chips for iPhone/Mac, which could pressure memory suppliers and has geopolitical implications. Israel rejected Trump's 15-point Gaza plan, a geopolitical negative but with limited direct market impact. The EU AI Act enforcement deadline passed, putting GOOGL, MSFT, META at risk of fines up to 3% of global turnover. China's July CPI cooled to 0.5% (below 0.8% forecast), easing inflation concerns. The US jobs report miss last Friday has cooled Fed rate hike bets, supporting gold and risk assets.