WS #13732

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure, but this window shows a significant new development: reports (WSJ, corroborated by multiple sources) indicate President Trump may be willing to drop the nuclear deal demand and declare victory if Iran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz. This is a potential de-escalation signal that could reduce oil prices and ease market fears. However, Iran has set tough conditions (lifting blockade, sanctions, troop withdrawal, reparations) that the US is unlikely to accept, and Israel's Energy Minister openly opposes any US-Iran deal, keeping the situation uncertain. Oil prices are around $80, with Brent at $83.55, and Iraq's oil exports have plunged due to the closure. The Houthis claimed an attack on a Saudi refinery, adding to supply risks. This is a counter-signal to the prevailing bearish oil narrative, but the path to reopening remains fraught.