WS #13752

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran/Strait of Hormuz conflict, which is ESCALATING. Iran has hardened its conditions for reopening the strait, demanding compensation for war damage and US force withdrawal, while the Houthis have resumed attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities and the Red Sea port of Mokha, killing at least seven. This dual squeeze on oil export routes (Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb) is intensifying supply fears. However, a potential counter-signal is emerging: reports that Trump is privately considering declaring victory and ending the war without a nuclear deal, which could de-escalate if it leads to a reopening of the strait. Separately, the US Senate passed a bill authorizing tariffs up to 100% on countries buying Russian oil, which could have broad trade implications. In tech, Apple is testing memory chips from Chinese maker CXMT for iPhones and MacBooks, a move that could ease supply constraints but carries geopolitical weight. The Boring Company is seeking a $4 billion raise at a $20 billion valuation, a fourfold increase, which may signal investor confidence in Musk's ventures. Overall, the market is at record highs with a bullish tone, but the oil supply crisis and trade tensions pose risks.