WS #13766

The dominant market narrative remains the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure, which is ESCALATING. Brent crude is up 2.96% to $84.64/barrel and WTI up 2.74% to $79.19, with both futures rising over $1 on uncertainty over the strait's reopening. Iran's hardline stance is reinforced by the appointment of Mohsen Rezaei to the NSS and the Guards' refusal to reopen Hormuz without US meeting all demands. Houthi drone attacks on a Saudi Aramco refinery (Jazan) and the port of Mokha add to supply disruption fears. However, a potential counter-signal emerges: WSJ reports Trump may settle the conflict without a nuclear deal if Hormuz reopens, and Trump told Axios he is 'low-keying it' and 'semi-negotiating,' suggesting a possible de-escalation path. This is corroborated by multiple sources (WSJ, Axios, GDELT). The US has redirected 55 ships since resuming its naval blockade, indicating active military operations. In corporate news, Berkshire Hathaway invested $10 billion in Alphabet (GOOGL) and completed a $6.8 billion acquisition of Taylor Morrison, cutting its cash pile to $365.5 billion; this is a high-significance positive for GOOGL and signals Berkshire's deployment of capital. Trump Media (DJT) earnings declined 61.3% over 5 years with a YTD share drop of 25.85%, a negative signal for DJT. Nikkei futures trade at 66,370 vs cash close 65,606, indicating a positive open for Japanese equities, which may lift Asian markets. Upcoming earnings (CSCO, SMCI, AMAT) and inflation data later this week are key catalysts.