WS #13773

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran/Hormuz crisis, which is ESCALATING. Oil futures opened up ~2% on Globex after reports that Iran fired anti-ship cruise missiles at a tanker off Oman in the US-backed southern corridor of Hormuz, setting it on fire (unconfirmed). This strike, if confirmed, directly targets the one lane Washington relied on to keep ~8M bpd flowing, removing the main pressure valve and arguing for a firmer oil price floor. Iran vows Hormuz stays shut until US meets demands, and Houthis widened the Red Sea blockade, striking Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery (confirmed fire, no injuries). Trump says 'low-keying it,' signaling patience, but the kinetic escalation suggests the risk premium is returning. Counter-signals: US may lift Iranian port blockade once a deal is announced (Polymarket active), and Kazakhstan resumed CPC oil exports, adding supply. Gold is at a seven-week high, with UBS reiterating a $5,000/oz target by H1 2027, citing falling real yields and dollar weakness. US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 23k in July, trimming Fed rate hike odds, supportive for equities and gold. This week's US CPI (expected 3.4% y/y) is critical; hot data could trigger a selloff. China's July CPI rose only 0.5% y/y (below expectations), indicating deflationary pressure, while PPI rose 3.5% y/y. In tech, NVIDIA is testing lower-memory Rubin Ultra GPU designs due to HBM shortage, a potential negative for NVDA margins, but Huang denies delays. Apple plans to relaunch ceramic Apple Watch, a minor positive. Datadog insiders sold $11.7M, a bearish signal for DDOG. Other notable items: Element Fleet Management's A$3.80/share bid for FleetPartners (34.3% premium) is a M&A signal; Treasury Wine Estates announced a $395M charge tied to US supply chain revamp; Sezzle stock lost a third of its value despite beating revenue and raising guidance; Exxon linked an $80B Kazakh oil venture to resolving a $150B dispute; and the Senate moved the CLARITY Act (crypto regulation) toward a vote.