WS #13787

The dominant macro narrative remains the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure, which is STABLE but with a notable counter-signal: Iran's Foreign Ministry stated it is not currently pursuing toll charges on Hormuz transits, and Iran-Oman talks are in 'final stages' though Iran insists the strait won't reopen without US concessions. Oil prices are firming (Brent ~$84.4, WTI ~$78.8) on Hormuz uncertainty, with Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure adding supply risk. This supports energy names (XOM, CVX) while pressuring airlines (DAL, UAL) and shipping. Separately, a major Ukrainian drone strike on Russia's Nizhnekamsk oil refinery killed at least 13, marking one of the deadliest attacks on Russian soil and targeting a key refining hub—this is an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war with potential energy supply implications. In corporate news, several M&A deals and earnings surprises dominate: Teledyne (TDY) to acquire Varex Imaging (VREX) for $1.1B (VREX +49% premarket), MarineMax (HZO) to be taken private by BlackRock Infrastructure at $53/share (96% premium), Bowman Consulting (BWMN) to be acquired by Bernhard Capital at $43/share (58% premium), and AAON raised FY26 guidance with a massive earnings beat. Cloudflare (NET) announced a $2.175B convertible notes offering, pressuring shares. Meta (META) introduced Muse Glimmer, an open-weight 30B local AI model, and Zuckerberg said the independent board will approve model releases—a positive AI narrative signal. The Fed rate-hike probability for September has dropped to ~44% after weak jobs data, supporting growth/tech and gold (gold +0.5% to $4,338/oz).