WS #13789

The dominant market narrative this window is the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, with a major Ukrainian drone strike on the Russian city of Nizhnekamsk killing at least 13 people and hitting the Taneco oil refinery. This is corroborated by multiple sources (AP, BBC, CNN, GDELT, and various Bluesky posts), marking the deadliest attack inside Russia in over two years. The strike is driving oil prices higher (Brent above $85, WTI above $79.8) and European natural gas prices up 6.5% to over 59 euros/MWh on the TTF, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade adding to supply concerns. This is a clear escalation of the conflict, with potential second-order effects on energy stocks, airlines, and European industrials. Separately, several high-profile corporate developments are moving stocks premarket: Intel announced a $15 billion stock offering to fund AI ambitions, causing shares to drop 3%; Jefferies downgraded Apple to Underperform on reports the all-glass iPhone is canceled, sending shares down 1%; Meta announced it will open-source its most powerful AI models (Muse Spark 1.2 and Muse Glimmer), with shares up 2.1%; and GameStop is reportedly pulling its $56 billion eBay bid, impacting both stocks. Berkshire Hathaway reported a 16% rise in operating earnings and a shift to net equity buying, a notable sentiment shift. The US-Iran/Hormuz narrative remains stable with no new counter-signals, but the Ukraine strike adds upward pressure on energy prices.