WS #13793

The dominant market narrative is the Iran/Strait of Hormuz crisis, which is ESCALATING. Iran has hardened its position, stating the Strait will remain closed until the US meets its conditions, including compensation and lifting sanctions. This has driven oil prices sharply higher, with Brent up over 2% to ~$85 and WTI touching $80, and is the primary driver of a risk-off open in US equities. The drone strike on Russia's Nizhnekamsk refinery (Tatarstan), killing 13, adds to energy supply concerns and is corroborated by multiple sources (AP, RTE, France24, GDELT). The US Senate passed a bill allowing 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil (India, China, etc.), which could further tighten global oil flows. Counter-signals are limited: Iran-Oman talks on a shipping corridor offer a potential de-escalation path but are not yet conclusive. In corporate news, Intel announced a $15B share sale to fund AI capacity, causing its stock to fall ~3-5%; Microsoft's Maia 300 chip plans and TSMC capacity constraints are notable for the AI supply chain. Jefferies downgraded Apple on iPhone setback, a MAG7-specific negative. Embraer beat Q2 estimates strongly, and Barrick/Newmont reached a Nevada Gold Mines agreement. The macro backdrop includes a hot CPI report concern and weak jobs data reducing Fed rate hike bets, but the oil spike is the key near-term risk.