WS #13819

The Strait of Hormuz crisis remains the dominant market driver, with oil prices surging over 5% (WTI ~$82, Brent ~$87) as Iran sets tough conditions for reopening the strait, demanding sanctions relief, war reparations, and asset release. President Trump has countered by demanding compensation from Iran, escalating rhetoric and dimming hopes for a near-term deal. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, GDELT, oilprice.com, Polymarket). The situation is ESCALATING, with no de-escalation signals. Energy stocks (XOM, CVX, XLE) are bullish, while airlines (DAL, UAL, AAL) are bearish. Additionally, the US SPR has fallen below 300M barrels (43-year low), and Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery restart is delayed, tightening supply. In tech, Nvidia's $500B AI infrastructure deal with Wall Street asset managers is confirmed by CNBC and FT, but the stock continues to fall (~2-3%) on concerns about circular financing and valuation, with a Jefferies downgrade on Apple adding to tech weakness. Intel announced a $15B share sale to fund AI buildout, pressuring its stock. Berkshire Hathaway reported strong earnings and a $10B Alphabet stake, lifting its shares. The Colombia earthquake (7.4 magnitude, 111+ dead) is a humanitarian event with limited direct US market impact. Trump's executive order on childhood vaccines is a policy story with potential implications for vaccine makers but is not a major market mover. Overall, the market is focused on oil, inflation data (CPI/PPI due this week), and Fed rate expectations.