WS #13827

The dominant macro theme remains the Strait of Hormuz crisis, but the narrative has shifted from de-escalation to renewed escalation. Iran's foreign minister has stated that Iran will not negotiate with the US until Trump's term ends, directly contradicting the previous conditional de-escalation signal. This is corroborated by multiple sources including a Polymarket event showing only a 4% chance of traffic returning to normal by August 31, and a Bloomberg headline noting oil jumps as markets await Middle East clarity. Oil prices are climbing, with WTI expected to close above $82, and US oil reserves have fallen below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983, adding to supply concerns. This escalation is bearish for equities, particularly airlines and consumer discretionary, and bullish for energy names. The market closed lower with S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all down, attributed to rising oil prices and Treasury yields. Hedge funds have bought global equities for a second consecutive week, suggesting some institutional risk appetite despite the macro headwinds. In earnings, several notable moves: Riot Platforms secured a $9.1B AI data center lease, sending shares higher; Hims & Hers raised FY26 guidance despite an EPS miss; Rocket Lab beat revenue and guided above; AECOM slashed guidance; and AST SpaceMobile missed badly. These single-stock catalysts are actionable in the next 1-8 hours.