WS #13833

The Strait of Hormuz standoff remains the dominant market driver, with oil prices surging ~5% (WTI ~$82, Brent ~$87.8) as negotiations remain deadlocked. Trump's demand for Iranian compensation and Iran's refusal to negotiate until 2029 (per Hormuz Letter) signal continued escalation, while the US claims to have mine-swept the strait and control it 100% — a counter-signal that may ease supply fears but is contradicted by Iran's stance. The SPR drop below 300M barrels (298.7M) adds to supply tightness, supporting energy equities (XOM, CVX, MPC) and pressuring airlines (DAL, UAL) and consumer sectors. Separately, Nvidia announced a $500B AI infrastructure financing partnership with Apollo, Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR — a major positive for NVDA and AI infrastructure names, though NVDA shares fell 2.9% on the day amid broader tech weakness. Microsoft's Maia 300 AI chip unveiling (as early as September) and Apple's downgrade by Jefferies (all-glass iPhone cancelled, memory costs) are notable MAG7 divergences. Earnings surprises: Archer Aviation +12% on Boeing deal (acquiring Wisk, Insitu, SkyGrid for ~20% equity), Riot Platforms' $9.1B AI lease, Fermi America's $6.5B TensorWave lease, and Trump Media's $238M loss. The macro backdrop includes Fed rate hike odds rising to ~50% (from 45.9%) on oil-driven inflation, with CPI due Wednesday.