WS #13860

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran/Hormuz oil crisis, which is STABLE-to-ESCALATING with a notable counter-signal: Qatar's statement that Oman-Iran talks are at an advanced stage, corroborated by Pakistan's defense minister saying the US and Iran are 'close to some sort of arrangement.' This drove oil prices to reverse gains, with Brent pulling back to ~$87 after briefly touching $90, and US indices opening higher on hopes for a deal. However, the counter-signal is partially offset by the US military striking a Panama-flagged vessel in the Gulf of Oman and the first deadly Houthi attack on a ship since the war began, keeping geopolitical risk elevated. The Nvidia $500B AI infrastructure financing initiative with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR is a high-significance positive for AI infrastructure and NVDA, though it is a carry-forward from the previous window with no new data. Intel's $20B equity raise (upsized from $15B, priced at $95, 5x oversubscribed) is also carry-forward, with shares fading on dilution. New signals include Russia's central bank authorizing regulated crypto trading (bullish for crypto sentiment), a US judge dismissing charges against Adani (positive for Adani-linked equities), and a potential Curaleaf takeover offer for Aurora Cannabis (bullish for ACB). Macro data shows US Redbook YoY at 8.3% (down from 8.7%), and gold up for a 7th day near $4,453, reflecting safe-haven demand. The VIX has fallen to prewar levels despite oil near $90, indicating complacency that could be a contrarian risk.