WS #13862

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran/Hormuz standoff, which is STABLE with no new de-escalation data. Oil prices have pulled back slightly (WTI -1% to ~$81.29, Brent ~$87) after earlier gains, with reports of a possible US-Iran peace deal supporting equities (S&P +0.13%). However, Trump's demand for compensation from Iran and delays in Oman-mediated talks keep geopolitical risk elevated. Gold hit a 10-week high near $4,400/oz on safe-haven demand. In energy supply, Libya's Zawiya refinery halted operations after drone strikes, and Russia's crude exports fell to a multi-month low, supporting oil prices. A major fire at Rosneft's Komsomolsk refinery adds to supply concerns. These supply disruptions are partially offset by ADNOC's increased spot tenders and a brief lull in drone strikes allowing refiners to boost runs. The AI infrastructure theme continues with Nvidia's $500B financing initiative and new IBM-Together AI deal, but CoreWeave's muted reaction suggests financing risk remains. Anthropic's IPO plans (September/early October) are gaining attention, with Amazon owning ~18% as a key beneficiary. Macro data: US existing home sales came in at 4.06M vs 4.05M est, slightly better than expected, but the focus is on Wednesday's CPI report. Rates are elevated (10Y at 4.72%), and investors warn of complacency as VIX falls to prewar levels despite oil near $90. Bitcoin is above $65,000, with Mastercard acquiring stablecoin firm BVNK for $1.8B. In single-stock moves, Riot Platforms surged ~12% after Bloomberg confirmed Anthropic as the tenant behind its $9.1B data center lease, and CleanSpark signed a $6.6B AI data center lease. Cardinal Health hit a 52-week high on strong Q4 results and $5B buyback. Verisk fell 6.5% after a judge ruled on a $2.35B acquisition. HPE rose 5% premarket. Playboy rallied 22% on licensing model. Microbot Medical fell 11.6% on revenue miss. Beyond Meat dropped 20% on smart money selling. These are actionable signals for the next 1-8 hours.