WS #13869

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran/Hormuz standoff, which is STABLE-to-ESCALATING. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei reiterated that the Strait will not reopen until the US ends the war, unfreezes funds, and accepts other conditions (Tasnim/Reuters), directly contradicting Pakistan's earlier 'close to some sort of arrangement' comment. However, Qatar's foreign ministry confirmed that Oman-Iran talks on Hormuz have reached an 'advanced stage' and that Doha is pushing for rapid reopening, a new diplomatic data point that could signal a potential de-escalation path. Oil prices remain elevated with Brent near $88-89 and WTI above $82, and the US Energy Secretary reported a seven-day average of nearly 9 million barrels per day leaving the Strait, suggesting some traffic is flowing despite the blockade. The key near-term catalyst remains Wednesday's CPI report, with trend-chasing funds holding record short bets on bonds, raising stakes for the print. Atlanta Fed's Venable said inflation is too high and easing depends on Middle East events, while Cleveland Fed's Hammack said 'now is the time to act and raise rates,' adding to the hawkish tone. In corporate news, Nvidia's $500B AI infrastructure financing deal with major asset managers is a high-significance positive for AI infrastructure names, and Morgan Stanley sees SpaceX more than doubling on its Cursor AI acquisition. Joby Aviation's $500M acquisition of Resonant Sciences expands its defense business. Tesla recalled 20,000 vehicles for too-bright headlights, a minor negative. The Russia-US prisoner release of Robert Gilman is a positive geopolitical signal but has limited market impact.