WS #13873

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict and its impact on oil prices, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade persisting. Key developments this window include: (1) US sees Iran war oil supply disruptions lasting through 2027 (Bloomberg), a significant escalation in expected duration; (2) Houthis reportedly kill four in first deadly attack on a cargo ship in the Red Sea since the war began (BBC, corroborated by GDELT), raising regional risk premium; (3) US helicopter attacks a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz (WSJ via GDELT), indicating active military engagement; (4) Iran rejects talks with Trump, and Oman mediation efforts are ongoing but no deal (multiple sources), with Qatar reporting 'advanced stage' talks on Hormuz transit, creating mixed signals; (5) EIA raises 2026 Brent forecast to $86.81 from $81.91, reflecting persistent supply disruptions. Oil prices are volatile, with Brent briefly above $90 before falling back to ~$88.66. This is an ESCALATING geopolitical situation with no counter-signals. Separately, Nvidia's $500B AI financing deal with Wall Street firms (Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, KKR) is corroborated across multiple sources (GDELT, Seeking Alpha, Bloomberg) and is a high-significance positive for AI infrastructure stocks. Intel's $19.7B stock sale at $95/share attracted $100B in demand, confirming strong investor appetite. Anthropic's $9.1B deal with Riot Platforms for AI data center capacity is a new development boosting Riot and signaling AI compute demand. Apple is facing RAM shortage issues, with reports of inventory buildup and potential impact on iPhone production, while Microsoft is raising Windows OEM licensing fees by up to 10%, adding to PC price pressures. The market is awaiting Wednesday's CPI report, with CTA bond shorts at record levels, making the inflation print a key catalyst.