WS #13879
The dominant US-Iran/Hormuz narrative remains ESCALATING, with Tehran hardening its stance by demanding new conditions before reopening the Strait, contradicting earlier hopes of a deal. This is corroborated by FT reporting and Polymarket odds, reinforcing bearish pressure on oil-sensitive sectors and bullish energy names. Concurrently, the AI trade is showing signs of stabilization and selective strength: Intel's upsized $20B stock offering at $95/share signals robust AI demand, while Nvidia's $500B financing partnership (carried forward) and TSMC's 45% sales surge underscore sustained AI capex. However, SpaceX's 13% stock drop on AI spending concerns and negative cash flows from Alphabet/Tesla highlight investor anxiety over AI monetization, creating a mixed picture for tech. Macro data points to a cooling US economy (weak ADP, soft CPI, low labor force participation) that may keep the Fed on hold, while Singapore's surprise tightening and India's accelerating inflation reflect global price pressures from the oil shock. Gold's 'explosive' upside potential and record US petroleum exports are notable secondary effects.
Topics
Key developments
- Iran hardens stance, demands new conditions before reopening Hormuz
- Intel upsizes stock offering to $20B at $95/share to fund AI demand
- SpaceX stock falls 13% on AI spending surge and looming share unlock
- TSMC sales surge 45% on buoyant AI demand
- US jobs report weak: ADP +98K, payrolls +57K, labor force participation lowest in 50 years
- Singapore tightens monetary policy in surprise move on oil-driven inflation
- Gold's upside potential 'explosive' as central banks hoard
- US petroleum exports hit record in April on Hormuz disruptions