WS #13881

The dominant US-Iran/Hormuz narrative remains ESCALATING with new data points: CENTCOM has redirected 55 commercial vessels attempting to run the blockade, disabled 3, and boarded 2, with a US Navy helicopter firing Hellfire missiles into a vessel's engine room. Iran continues to demand new conditions before reopening the Strait, and US-Iran ceasefire odds remain low. This escalation is driving oil prices higher (WTI +1.06%, Brent +1.07%, Murban +3.83%) and boosting US petroleum exports to a record 13.6 million b/d in April. The AI trade narrative is STABLE with continued strong demand signals: TSMC sales surge 45%, Intel upsizes stock offering to $20B at $95/share, and Google's Gemini app surpasses 1 billion users. However, there are counter-signals: OpenAI's Brad Lightcap departure and pause of Astra model development introduce leadership and safety concerns, while SpaceX stock falls 13% on AI spending concerns. The Colombia earthquake (7.4 magnitude, 169+ killed) is disrupting coffee exports, a new supply shock. US CPI data due Wednesday is expected to show modest increases, potentially keeping the Fed on hold. The AI trade shows mixed signals with AMD stock sinking after earnings and AppLovin downgraded, but Riot Platforms jumps 9% on a $9.1B AI compute lease with Anthropic.