WS #13887

The dominant US-Iran conflict narrative remains in an escalation phase, with oil prices continuing to surge (Brent at $89.15, +1.63%; WTI at $83.44, +1.60%) as Iran insists Hormuz stays closed and the US military fired on a Panama-flagged vessel attempting to breach the blockade. However, a new counter-signal has emerged: multiple sources (Pakistan's Defence Minister, Qatar's foreign ministry spokesperson, and European market commentary) indicate that US-Iran negotiations over Hormuz are in an 'advanced phase' and a deal could be near, which would be a major de-escalation catalyst for oil and risk assets. This is corroborated by European gas prices falling on the news and a slight pullback in oil from session highs. Separately, a wave of earnings reports is driving individual stock moves: Super Micro Computer (SMCI) beat EPS massively but missed revenue and guided Q1 above estimates; Lumentum (LITE) beat and guided strongly higher; H&R Block (HRB) beat and raised guidance; Sea Limited (SE) surged 13.86% on strong results; and several other names (CAVA, Energy Vault, Evolv, Velo3D) beat. Oracle (ORCL) is reportedly planning double-digit job cuts on some teams, and Quantinuum announced a partnership with Oracle for quantum computing on OCI. Tesla (TSLA) recalled 20,349 vehicles over overly bright headlights. The Fed rate hike narrative is stable with ~50% odds for September, and CPI due Wednesday is the key macro catalyst.