WS #13892

The dominant US-Iran conflict narrative remains in an ESCALATING phase, with new data points reinforcing the bearish oil and risk-off thesis. Iran's oil minister explicitly stated the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US meets its conditions, and Pakistan's interior minister is in Tehran for talks to reopen the strait, indicating diplomatic efforts are ongoing but unresolved. US CENTCOM struck a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has threatened retaliation, corroborating the escalation. Oil prices are rising (WTI +1.55%, Brent +1.60%), and the API reported a 9.072M barrel crude build, which is a bearish counter-signal for oil prices. The US dollar strengthened on safe-haven flows, and US equities closed lower (S&P 500 -0.32%, Nasdaq -0.6%) ahead of Wednesday's CPI report. Fed's Hammack signaled multiple rate hikes may be needed, adding to the hawkish macro backdrop. In earnings, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) beat EPS but missed revenue, guiding FY27 revenue to $65-72B vs $52.5B consensus, with shares +7% AH. CoreWeave (CRWV) revenue doubled to $2.58B, backlog $104B, shares +11% AH. CAVA double beat, shares +11% AH. H&R Block beat and raised guidance, shares +12%. These AI and consumer earnings are positive signals but are secondary to the geopolitical escalation.