WS #13897

The dominant US-Iran conflict narrative remains in an escalation phase, with Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei reiterating that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until the US accepts Tehran's conditions, including ending the war and unfreezing assets. This is corroborated by multiple sources (oilprice.com, GDELT, Newsquawk) and has pushed Brent crude toward $90/barrel, with WTI above $83. The market is now pricing a near coin-flip (50-50) probability of a September Fed rate hike, with the July CPI report due Wednesday morning as the key catalyst. US equities closed lower Tuesday (S&P 500 -0.32%, Nasdaq -0.60%) as Amazon (-2.09%) and Alphabet (-3.84%) weighed, while energy stocks gained ~1.1%. A counter-signal emerged from Pakistan's defense minister suggesting the US and Iran are 'close to some sort of arrangement,' but this has not yet moved the needle given Iran's hardline stance. Separately, North Korea fired a suspected ballistic missile, adding to geopolitical risk, though market impact appears contained. In corporate news, Super Micro Computer surged 6%+ after guiding FY27 revenue to $65-72B (vs ~$53B est), and CoreWeave jumped 14% on strong Q2 results, reinforcing the AI infrastructure demand narrative. Nvidia's $500B AI financing platform with six Wall Street firms (Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, KKR) continues to be a major theme, with Apollo (+6.26%) and Blackstone (+3.89%) rallying on the news.