WS #13905

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure, which is ESCALATING. President Trump claimed '100% control' of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran's new security chief reiterated the strait stays closed unless the US meets conditions, including $300B in reparations. Pakistan and Qatar signal progress on Oman-Iran talks, but the market is skeptical as oil prices continue to rise (Brent ~$89.63, WTI ~$83.91). The EIA raised its Q3 Brent forecast to $85.21/bbl, and Ship & Bunker raised its Q3 bunker price outlook by $100/mt, reflecting persistent supply concerns. US forces fired missiles at a cargo ship violating the blockade, and Houthi attacks on shipping continue. This is offset by US Energy Secretary Wright's claim that Persian Gulf oil exports are near pre-war levels, a counter-signal that dampens the supply-crisis thesis. The market is trading headline-to-headline, with no clear direction. Key developments include Nvidia's $500B AI infrastructure financing deal with major asset managers, which boosted KKR (+6.43%), Apollo (+6.06%), and Brookfield (+4.8%) while NVDA was flat; Super Micro's strong guidance (FY27 revenue $65-72B vs $52.5B est.) sent shares up 7% after hours; and Alphabet's continued slide (-3.84%) on AI culture concerns. The upcoming US CPI report (Wednesday) is the next major catalyst, with expectations for 3.4% YoY, and Fed officials (Goolsbee) flagging inflation as the biggest problem, keeping rate-hike risk alive.