WS #13909

The US-Iran/Hormuz crisis remains the dominant market driver, with the narrative ESCALATING. Iran's new security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed unless the US ends the war, returns frozen assets, and meets other conditions, dampening hopes for a quick deal. This is corroborated by multiple sources (RFE, Adnkronos, GDELT). Trump's claim of full US control over the strait, while oil flows reportedly recover to ~9 million bpd, presents a mixed picture but does not resolve the underlying supply risk. Brent crude is approaching $90/bbl, with WTI near $84.3, marking a sixth consecutive session of gains. The Houthi attack on the Tihamah, which killed six, remains a key escalation point, though it was already covered in the previous cycle. The market is now focused on the upcoming US CPI report, which is a binary event for Fed rate hike expectations (roughly 50/50 for September). A hot print could trigger a risk-off move, while a soft print could relieve pressure. In corporate news, Tata Sons chairman N Chandrasekaran's resignation was initially reported by Reuters but later clarified that he will complete his term, creating confusion but likely limited market impact. Intel's $15 billion share sale to fund its foundry expansion is a notable development, with shares falling over 4% on dilution concerns. Nvidia's $500B financing initiative with Wall Street firms remains a high-significance positive for NVDA and the AI infrastructure complex, with CoreWeave's strong results and BofA's upgrade cycle commentary reinforcing the theme.