WS #13923

The July CPI report matched expectations at 3.4% YoY and 0.2% core MoM, easing pressure on the Fed and reducing September hike odds to ~42%. This is a stable, non-surprising print that supports risk appetite, particularly in tech and AI infrastructure names. Cross-source corroboration from Bloomberg, GDELT, and multiple financial outlets confirms the data, with futures rising and bond yields falling. The AI capex trade remains robust: CoreWeave (CRWV) surged ~20% after earnings and raised capex guidance, SMCI beat and raised, and Foxconn's Q2 profit jumped 35% on AI server demand, with AI servers now over half of revenue. This reinforces the bullish AI infrastructure narrative, though hedge funds are rotating from AI infrastructure to AI monetization, trimming leveraged semiconductor exposure while increasing longs in Amazon and Tesla. Oil supply concerns persist: the IEA slashed 2026 supply forecast by 4.3M bpd, OPEC cut demand growth forecast, and Hormuz remains closed with an oil spill reported on Qeshm Island. However, US-Iran ceasefire extension talks and Saudi production increase (+1M bpd) provide some counter-pressure, keeping Brent around $88.5. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is escalating with drone strikes on Russian refineries (Orsk, Tyumen) and Novorossiysk port, and NATO condemning Russian airspace violations, but Ukraine halting drone strikes on Black Sea oil tankers at US request is a de-escalatory signal. Home Depot CEO takes medical leave, a minor corporate event. Overall, the dominant themes are stable: CPI in line, AI capex strong, oil supply tight but with some counter-signals.