WS #13934
The dominant theme remains Middle East tensions, but this window shows a critical counter-signal: Ukraine has halted attacks on a Russian port at the request of VP Vance, citing Washington's fear of destabilizing oil markets, while OPEC cut its 2026 demand forecast for the fourth straight month and the IEA now expects a 1.6M bpd decline. These developments, alongside the massive US crude inventory build (17.4M barrels), are bearish for oil prices, countering the escalation narrative. However, Trump's claims of 'total control' over Hormuz and Iran's refusal to open the strait keep geopolitical risk elevated, with European gas prices rising 3% on fading hopes of a US-Iran deal. The AI infrastructure supercycle remains firmly intact, with CoreWeave, Super Micro, Nebius, and Lumentum all posting blowout results, driving a broad tech rally. SMCI's $60B in new orders and Nebius's $1B+ contracts strongly refute 'peak AI spending' fears. Intel's $20B capital raise is seen as removing an overhang, with CEO buying $12M of shares. CPI data was in line, lowering September rate hike odds to ~40%, supporting equities. The VIX fell to a 7-month low, indicating complacency despite geopolitical risks.
Topics
Key developments
- Ukraine halts attacks on Russian port at US request to avoid oil market destabilization
- OPEC cuts 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 580k bpd, fourth straight cut; IEA sees 1.6M bpd decline
- Super Micro reports blowout Q4, $60B in new orders, guidance far above consensus
- Nebius Q2 revenue surges 454% YoY, signs four $1B+ AI cloud contracts
- Intel CEO buys $12M of shares in $20B offering; UBS says removes overhang
- US crude inventories surge 17.4M barrels, largest build since Jan 2023
- July CPI in line at 3.4% YoY, core 2.5%; September rate hike odds drop to ~40%
- Lumentum Q4 revenue surges 109% YoY, guides Q1 above consensus