WS #13936

The dominant theme remains Middle East tensions and the Strait of Hormuz blockade, which is ESCALATING. Iran's military official threatens to prolong the war until Trump leaves office and develop capabilities to strike US soil, while Iran's security chief reiterates Hormuz will remain closed unless conditions are met. This is corroborated by multiple sources (PBS, Tasnim, The Week). The US CPI for July came in at 3.4% YoY, in line with expectations, cooling slightly from 3.5%, which has reduced September Fed hike odds to 42% and supported equity futures. However, energy prices remain elevated (gasoline +24.6% YoY), and the IEA cut its 2026 demand forecast by 1.6M b/d, the first annual decline since the pandemic, while OPEC still sees growth, creating a 2.2M b/d divergence. Black Sea tanker rates surged to a record $440,948/day, up 140% since early July, due to drone attacks on Novorossiysk, impacting CPC Blend crude. Ukraine confirmed damage to four Russian warships in Novorossiysk, including Kalibr carriers, which is a new data point on the conflict. The AI infrastructure supercycle continues to be confirmed by strong earnings from CoreWeave, Nebius, Super Micro, and Lumentum, with CoreWeave's price target raised to $155 and Super Micro jumping 13.3%. TSMC committed another $100B to Arizona, total $265B. Goldman Sachs acquired NEOS Investments for $2.25B, expanding its bitcoin ETF platform. The LA Lakers are being sold for a record $12.5B to Josh Kushner and Bob Iger, a notable sports asset transaction. The US 10-year Treasury auction drew the highest yield since 2007, signaling bond market stress. The UK Treasury warned of 0.3% GDP growth in 2027 if Hormuz remains closed, a macro second-order effect.