WS #13942
The dominant US-Iran/Hormuz narrative remains in an escalation phase, with Trump doubling down on total control of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran rejecting his claims, while ship traffic near three-month lows and oil supply disruptions expected through 2027. However, a counter-signal emerges: reports of a possible 60-90 day ceasefire extension between the US and Iran, and Pakistan's optimism on talks, which could dampen the bearish oil thesis. The July CPI report came in line at 3.4% YoY, cooling Fed hike odds to ~40%, supporting long-duration AI/growth stocks, but the US budget deficit surged to $432.3B in July, the highest since March 2021, adding fiscal pressure. AI infrastructure demand remains exceptionally strong, with CoreWeave, Nebius, Super Micro, Lumentum, and Cerebras all surging on earnings, while Nvidia's $500B financing deal threatens Alphabet's custom chip ambitions. Michael Burry flags an unprecedented 182-day streak without broad-based selling as a red flag, and China halts purchases of US Nvidia chips, signaling tech independence push.
Topics
Key developments
- Trump vows to keep total control of Hormuz; Iran rejects; ceasefire extension reports emerge
- July CPI cools to 3.4% YoY, core 2.5%, Fed hike odds drop to ~40%
- AI infrastructure demand surges: CoreWeave, Nebius, Super Micro, Lumentum, Cerebras rally
- Nvidia's $500B financing deal threatens Alphabet's custom chip ambitions
- China halts purchases of US Nvidia chips, signaling tech independence push