WS #13944

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran/Hormuz standoff, which is STABLE-to-ESCALATING. Trump reiterated total US control of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran denied any ceasefire extension, with no progress in talks. The IEA slashed its 2026 oil supply forecast, projecting a 1.8M bpd deficit this quarter, deepening the supply crisis. This supports bullish energy (XOM, CVX) and bearish airlines (DAL, UAL). However, a counter-signal emerged: Pakistan is mediating US-Iran talks, and crude settled flat at $83.27, suggesting some de-escalation hopes. The AI infrastructure demand theme is strongly reinforced by CoreWeave, Nebius, and Super Micro earnings beats, lifting the entire AI complex (NVDA, SMCI, CRWV, NBIS) and related power names like Bloom Energy (+12%). US July CPI came in line at 3.4% YoY, cooling Fed hike odds to ~40%, supporting equities broadly. Canada-US tariff talks remain unresolved ahead of the Aug 19 deadline, adding trade uncertainty. SpaceX stock surged 11% on Morgan Stanley's 'buying opportunity' call and Norway's sovereign fund stake disclosure, a notable MAG7-adjacent move. The US budget deficit hit a record $432B in July, raising fiscal concerns. Overall, the market is near records, driven by AI earnings and tame inflation, but oil and geopolitical risks persist.