WS #13946

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran/Hormuz standoff, which is STABLE-to-ESCALATING. Trump reiterated US control over the Strait of Hormuz, calling the blockade a 'wall of steel,' while Iran reports no progress on a peace deal. The IEA's latest report forecasts a deep oil deficit of 1.8 million bpd in Q3 2026, more than double prior estimates, as global inventories fell 69 million barrels in July. This supports elevated oil prices, with Brent near $89 and WTI near $83. However, the EIA STEO projects Brent falling to $78/b by Q4 2026 and $69/b in 2027 as Hormuz traffic gradually resumes, providing a counter-signal to sustained high prices. Gas prices hit $5.00 in 22 states, and US10Y auction drew highest yield since GFC, reflecting inflation and rate concerns. July CPI came in at 3.4% YoY, in line with expectations, cooling September Fed hike odds to ~40%, which supported equities. AI infrastructure demand remains robust: CoreWeave, Nebius, and Super Micro beat earnings, lifting semiconductor stocks (NVDA +3.1%, SMCI +19.6%). Nvidia's financing deals with BlackRock, KKR, etc. are being questioned for circularity, but CEO Jensen Huang's comments eased fears. SpaceX stock rebounded ~10% after Norway's sovereign fund disclosed a stake, and short interest fell sharply. Other signals: Wendy's shares jumped on Peltz bid news; Paramount puts CNN sale on table; Home Depot CEO takes medical leave; Apple's iPhone 18 base model delayed to 2027; Intel CEO buys $12M in stock offering; Samsung and SK Hynix rally on Temasek investment report. Crypto remains weak with Bitcoin near $63k, and several crypto firms cut staff. The Lakers sale at $12.5B highlights sports asset inflation. Overall, the market is flirting with records, driven by AI earnings and tame inflation, but oil and geopolitical risks persist.