WS #13948

The dominant US-Iran/Hormuz narrative remains stable with no new data points or counter-signals, but the window is dominated by a major political development: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt is stepping down at the end of August, confirmed by multiple sources (BBC, AP, Axios, Bloomberg, NBC, Reuters). This is a high-significance political event but has limited direct market impact, though it may signal internal administration instability. The AI infrastructure trade continues to show strength, with CoreWeave, Nebius, and Super Micro beating earnings, lifting semiconductor and AI cloud stocks (NVDA, MU, SMCI, CRWV, NBIS). This corroborates the ongoing AI infrastructure narrative from the previous window. Additionally, there are notable options flows on CAT, HOOD, and MDB with aggressive call buying, suggesting institutional bullish positioning. The oil market remains elevated with Brent around $88.7, WTI around $83.1, and gold at $4,469.50, silver at $65.48, reflecting ongoing geopolitical risk. The July CPI at 3.4% YoY was in line with expectations, cooling Fed hike odds to ~42% for September, which is a stable macro backdrop. No new counter-signals to the prevailing escalation thesis have emerged.