WS #13954

The dominant theme remains Middle East tensions, but the window shows a clear DE-ESCALATION signal: Ukraine has halted drone strikes on oil tankers at Novorossiysk following a US Vice President request (FT, corroborated by multiple Bluesky posts), directly countering the escalation thesis. However, the Strait of Hormuz deadlock persists with only 14 ships transiting Tuesday (WSJ), and the EIA raised its Brent outlook to $87/bbl on Hormuz constraints, while US crude inventories posted a surprise 17.4M barrel build (largest since Jan 2023), pressuring oil prices. The AI infrastructure earnings season continues to drive tech: Cisco beat and raised but stock fell on profit-taking; Cerebras missed revenue but raised guidance, stock plunged 14%; Coherent beat and raised but shares slipped; CoreWeave surged 19.3% on strong results and $104B backlog; Nebius launched a token on Solana. July CPI met expectations (3.4% YoY, 0.1% MoM), easing Fed hike fears, with only 38.1% odds of a September hike, supporting tech and growth stocks. MSCI index review changes are underway, with SanDisk, Carpenter Tech, and ATI as largest additions to MSCI World, driving passive flows. The White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt is departing, a political story with limited market impact.