WS #13958

The dominant theme remains Middle East tensions, but this window shows a notable DE-ESCALATION signal: multiple sources (GDELT, Polymarket, and a German report citing Pakistani security circles) indicate the US-Iran ceasefire may be extended 60-90 days, with an Iran-Oman agreement on Hormuz shipping expected before Saturday. This counters the prevailing escalation thesis and could dampen oil prices, pressuring energy names while relieving airlines. However, oil prices remain elevated (Brent ~$88-89, WTI ~$82.6) with the Strait of Hormuz traffic at a 3-month low (only 14 ships on Aug 11 vs 130+ pre-war), and the EIA sees 600k bpd of Middle East oil offline through 2027, so the supply shock persists. The AI infrastructure trade remains robust: CoreWeave surged 19-20%, Super Micro +19%, Nebius +34%, and memory names (SK Hynix +9%, Micron +6%) rallied on strong earnings and demand signals, with Nvidia +3% on its $500B financing plan. Cisco beat earnings and revenue with $4B in hyperscaler orders, but the stock dropped in extended trading on profit-taking. Cerebras (CBRS) tumbled ~14% after Q2 revenue missed, despite raising guidance. CPI at 3.4% YoY in line with expectations eased Fed hike fears, supporting equities (S&P +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.54%).