WS #13980

The dominant market narrative remains the Strait of Hormuz standoff, but the window shows a clear shift toward demand-side concerns and diplomatic overtures, creating a mixed signal for oil prices. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority explicitly rejected Trump's claim of 'total control,' stating the strait 'remains blocked' until its conditions are met, while shipping traffic sits near 3-month lows (13 vessels vs. 130 pre-war average). However, oil prices are easing (Brent ~$88.5, WTI ~$82.7) on a massive 17.4M barrel US crude build (largest since Jan 2023), OPEC/IEA demand downgrades, and reports that Pakistan is mediating a US-Iran truce extension. This demand-supply tug-of-war is the key counter-signal to the pure supply-crisis thesis, pressuring energy names while providing some relief to airlines and shipping. Separately, the AI infrastructure theme continues to intensify with Anthropic reportedly targeting a $2T+ IPO valuation (potentially the largest ever), and L&T securing a mega-order to build India's largest NVIDIA B300 AI factory, reinforcing the AI capex supercycle. The UK GDP data (Q2 +0.4%, June +0.3% MoM) beat expectations, helped by World Cup and weather, but the Iran war's drag on growth remains a concern. Japan's PPI at 7.2% YoY and government support for a BoJ rate hike in Sept/Oct is a notable macro development, strengthening the yen and pressuring USD/JPY.