WS #13982

The dominant narrative remains the Strait of Hormuz standoff, which is STABLE-to-ESCALATING with no genuine de-escalation. Iran's Basij chief reiterated that the Strait is under Iranian control, directly countering Trump's 'total control' claim, while a senior Iranian source confirmed no progress in talks to revive the interim deal. Shipping through Hormuz has collapsed to 14-26 ships/day from ~130, and the IEA reports the blockade drained ~410 million barrels from global oil stocks. However, a counter-signal emerged: Maersk's CEO stated safety conditions are in place for a full return to Suez if nothing happens in Yemen, and the company will assess starting the next phase of returning with partner Hapag-Lloyd. This is a potential de-escalation signal for shipping and oil, though it is conditional and not yet confirmed. Oil prices eased slightly (Brent ~$88.5, WTI ~$82.7) as a massive 17.4M barrel US crude inventory build and OPEC/IEA demand downgrades offset supply concerns. The AI capex narrative remains intact with Nvidia raising $500B for AI infrastructure and Anthropic's potential $2T IPO, but Michael Burry added to AI shorts (NBIS, MU, ORCL, SOXX), calling Nebius 'what the top of a boom looks like', a notable bearish counter-signal. Cisco fell 4.5% premarket after Q4 earnings, while Dell rose 4% premarket. UK Q2 GDP grew 0.4% QoQ, in line with expectations, and Norway's central bank held rates at 4.25% as expected.