WS #13984

The dominant theme remains the Strait of Hormuz standoff, which is STABLE-to-ESCALATING with no new data points in this window; Iran continues to insist the strait remains blocked until US conditions are met, while the US claims control, and traffic remains ~90% below pre-war levels. The IEA warns global oil stockpiles are dwindling rapidly, and oil prices remain elevated (WTI ~$82, Brent ~$87-88), though they dipped slightly on demand concerns. A potential counter-signal emerged: reports that Iran and Oman are working on a plan to reopen the strait, with US officials suggesting a deal could be imminent, but this is unconfirmed and the US has ruled out Iranian control. Separately, Ukraine reportedly halted tanker strikes near Novorossiysk at Vance's request, a de-escalation signal for oil supply, but this is offset by continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries (Bashkortostan, Salavat) and Russia's capture of Petrivka. The AI capex narrative remains intact, with Nvidia's $500B financing deal pressuring Alphabet's custom chip strategy, and strong earnings from Super Micro, CoreWeave, and Lenovo reinforcing the AI infrastructure boom. US CPI came in line, reducing September rate hike odds, and Treasury yields dipped ahead of PPI. UK GDP grew 0.3% in June, beating expectations, but the FTSE slipped. Overall, the market is cautiously optimistic on AI and inflation, but Hormuz remains the key risk.