WS #13992

The dominant theme remains the Strait of Hormuz standoff, which is STABLE with no new de-escalation signals. Iran's central bank chief announced the country will join the BRICS New Development Bank, a move that could be seen as a counter to US sanctions pressure but does not directly affect the blockade. Oil prices are down today (Brent -2.37% to $86.87), likely reflecting softer US PPI data and easing inflation fears, but the geopolitical risk premium remains elevated. US July PPI came in flat (0.0% m/m vs 0.2% expected), with core PPI at 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected, reinforcing the case for a Fed rate hold in September. Initial jobless claims rose to 209k vs 202k expected, adding to the soft data narrative. These macro data points are supportive for equities, with futures pointing higher. In corporate news, several notable earnings and analyst actions: JD.com reported a double beat but shares fell premarket; Cerebras Systems reported weak Q2 results with shares down 16% premarket; Cisco's AI revenue guidance was conservative, sending shares down 6%; Accelerant is being acquired by Thoma Bravo for $4B+ (shares +44%); Coherent reported record Q4 results with analysts raising targets; Salesforce was upgraded by J.P. Morgan to Overweight; Microsoft's Copilot apps are being combined into a 'super app'; and Swedish union IF Metall will suspend industrial action against Tesla as of Aug 19, a positive for Tesla. The AI infrastructure theme continues with reports of $500B in institutional capital ready to fund AI data centers, and Anthropic is reportedly in talks to acquire Decart for $6B. The market narrative is 'disinflation + AI strength' with tech leading, but the Hormuz risk remains a tail risk.